Alex Palou bucked the trend last year of six consecutive different winners in the last six Sonsio Grand Prix events. Will Power struck victory in the 2018 Sonsio Grand Prix, followed by Simon Pagenaud, Scott Dixon, Rinus VeeKay, Colton Herta, and Palou winning the next five years in succession.

Two-time defending winner Palou also has three wins in the opening four races this season, including last Sunday’s Children’s of Alabama Indy Grand Prix powered by AmFirst.

Saturday’s 85-lap race around the 2.439-mile, 14-turn Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course shapes up to be Palou vs. the field. Which side comes out on top in the fifth race of the season airing at 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX, the FOX Sports app and the INDYCAR Radio Network?

Favorites

Pato O’Ward (No. 5 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet)

O’Ward has six consecutive Firestone Fast Six qualifying performances on the IMS road course, including an NTT P1 Award in the 2021 Gallagher Grand Prix. He finished on the podium in both races in 2023, runner-up in May and third in August. O’Ward earned the pole position this season for the The Thermal Club INDYCAR Grand Prix and finished runner-up in the race. He finished sixth at Barber, too.

Christian Lundgaard (No. 7 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet)

Lundgaard is off to a hot start to the season, joining Palou as the only two drivers with a top-10 finish in all four races this season. Entering the IMS road course, which is arguably his best track, Lundgaard made his debut here in August 2021 and has never started worse than eighth in six tries. He’s qualified on the front row in three consecutive IMS road course races, including a 2023 Sonsio Grand Prix pole, and finished second, fourth, fourth and third, respectively, in his last four efforts. This year at The Thermal Club, Lundgaard started second and finished third, sparking a three-race streak of podium finishes, including a runner-up last Sunday at Barber.

Scott Dixon (No. 9 PNC Bank Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

Dixon has 14 top-10 finishes in 16 IMS road course starts, including a sixth-place finish in May 2023, a fourth-place finish last May and a remarkable comeback from an opening-lap spin in August 2023 to land in victory lane.

Alex Palou (No. 10 DHL Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

The two-time defending race winner also won at The Thermal Club in March and last Sunday’s race at Barber. Palou had six top-five finishes in as many tries on natural road courses last season, including two victories and a pair of runner-up finishes. Chip Ganassi Racing has won the last three races on the IMS road course, too.

Will Power (No. 12 Verizon Team Penske Chevrolet)

The all-time wins leader (five) and NTT P1 Award record holder (six) on this road course has two wins, a runner-up finish last year and a pair of third-place finishes in his last seven tries on this circuit. He charged from 21st to finish sixth at The Thermal Club in March, finished fifth at Barber and secured four top-two finishes in six natural road course starts last season.

Sleepers

Alexander Rossi (No. 20 ECR Java House Chevrolet)

A July 2022 race winner on the IMS road course with Andretti Global, Rossi was third in this race in 2023 and eighth last year for Arrow McLaren. Rossi has eight top-eight finishes in his last nine IMS road course starts. He finished ninth at The Thermal Club in March and eighth in Barber.

Graham Rahal (No. 15 Fifth Third Bank Honda)

This has been a strong track for Rahal. He has 14 top-10 finishes in his last 15 tries, including placing 10th and second, respectively, in 2023. He qualified and finished ninth last year. Rahal’s NTT P1 Award here in August 2023 was his first in over six years. Rahal led a race-high 36 of 85 laps but finished runner-up to Dixon in the closest INDYCAR SERIES finish ever at the IMS road course, with a margin of .4779 of a second. He finished 11th at Thermal this season.

Colton Herta (No. 26 Gainbridge Honda)

Herta is a sleeper as a past winner in 2022 because that’s his lone podium on the road course in the last five tries. But he has three top-three finishes in 11 IMS road course starts. Herta qualified and finished fourth this season at The Thermal Club and started third and finished at Barber Motorsports Park. On natural road courses last season, Herta finished eighth, seventh, sixth, second, fourth and fourth, respectively.

Felix Rosenqvist (No. 60 SiriusXM Honda)

Rosenqvist won his first career NTT P1 Award here in 2019. The Swede most recently qualified on the front row in two of his last four starts on the IMS road course, including a second-place start and fifth-place finish in this race in May 2023. Rosenqvist qualified 10th and finished there last year. This season, Rosenqvist finished fifth at The Thermal Club and 13th at Barber.

Marcus Armstrong (No. 66 SiriusXM/Root Insurance Honda)

Meyer Shank Racing has been quick on this circuit, producing starting spots of third, second, sixth, seventh, third and seventh for Jack Harvey when he raced for the team from 2019-21. Armstrong qualified eighth and finished fifth last season for Chip Ganassi Racing and finished seventh and 17th, respectively, at The Thermal Club and Barber this season.